1. JD Vance (GOP) – +250 (~28.6%)
Currently the clear favorite in the election markets. BetMGM has him at +250 (28.6%), and Kalshi’s markets suggest a ~23–25% chance to win. He also leads the GOP primary polls, holding a commanding ~54–55% in some betting markets.
2. Donald Trump (GOP, third term) – ~+600 under 2nd on some books
Despite constitutional limits, major books still list Trump as the second-most likely, with odds ranging around +600 to +1333 (roughly 6–14%). Offshore “other” bucket implies ~34.5% across platforms.
3. Gavin Newsom (Dem) – +1000 (9–10%)
BetMGM lists him at +1000 (~9.1%). BetOnline places him as the third choice behind Trump based on moneyline markets. Kalshi sees him as the front‑runner for the Dem nomination (~19.5%).
4. Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez (Dem) – +1400 (~6.7%)
BetMGM’s third‑best odds winner at +1400.
5. Josh Shapiro (Dem) – +1600 (~5.9%)
Listed at +1600 alongside Trump Jr. on BetMGM, and featured among top Dem contenders.
6. Donald Trump Jr. (GOP) – +1600 (~5.9%)
Also at +1600 on BetMGM.
7. Pete Buttigieg (Dem) – +1800 (~5.3%)
On BetMGM’s list at +1800.
8. Gretchen Whitmer (Dem) – +2000 (~4.8%)
Rated +2000 on BetMGM and mentioned among top Dems.
9. Michelle Obama (Dem) – +2500 (~3.8%)
Listed at +2500 on BetMGM.
10. Ron DeSantis (GOP) – +2500 (~3.8%)
BetMGM includes him at +2500, and he’s second among GOP in some BetUS odds.
11. Nikki Haley (GOP) – +2500 (~3.8%)
Also +2500 on BetMGM.
12. Ivanka Trump (GOP) – +2800 (~3.45%)
BetMGM lists her at +2800.
13. Tulsi Gabbard (GOP) – +3300 (~2.9%)
Appears in BetMGM odds.
14. J.B. Pritzker (Dem) – +3300 (~2.9%)
Included in BetMGM markets.
15. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Dem/Ind) – +4000 (~2.4%)
On BetMGM at +4000. Also noted in media speculation.
🧭 Summary: Why the Rankings Shake Out This Way
- Republican bench: Vance leads decisively, with Trump’s continued influence making him the second-most favored despite constitutional uncertainty. DeSantis, Trump Jr., Haley, Ivanka, and Gabbard fill out the GOP’s top-tier mix.
- Democratic bench: Newsom pulls ahead in betting markets (and in some primary indicators), followed by AOC, Shapiro, Buttigieg, Whitmer, and the ever‑popular Michelle O. RFK Jr. holds midrange interest among Dem/independent circles.
- Betting markets highlight the high variance and intra-party dynamics of a 2028 field shaped by Trump-era influence and shifting Democratic strategies.
🔍 Political Center‑Right Take
Betting markets suggest a GOP edge, largely thanks to the Trump legacy and an Ohio-born VP sounding like a continuation of the current MAGA era. Meanwhile, the Democrats lean on established governors and progressives with national profiles—but none have yet mounted a dominant lead. Vance’s grip appears stronger than any Dem contender’s at present.
Even across party lines, there’s more hedge in the GOP lane—i.e., clear leaders plus Trump’s shadow—than among Dems, where long shots and open competition dominate.
⚠️ Notes & Caveats
- Odds reflect current sentiments based on betting patterns—not polls or fundamentals.
- Constitutional questions (e.g., Trump running again) could dramatically shift markets if resolved.
- These are early-stage odds—as of July 2025. With nearly four years to go, surprises are likely.
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