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The Hike Nobody in the White House Wanted

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years, targeting a range of 3.75%-4.00%, with expectations for another hike by year’s end. This hike reflects a strong economy rather than a failing one, although some inflation pressures relate to current administration policies. The next FOMC meeting is critical, coinciding with the election season.

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Did Trump Just Punk the Democrats Into America First?

The Senate voted 50-48 to end a war with Iran that concluded six weeks prior, with significant support from both parties. Democrats, criticizing Trump’s military actions, unexpectedly adopted anti-interventionist rhetoric, aligning with the “America First” approach they once opposed. The White House dismissed the vote’s significance, citing the war’s resolution.

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Reagan’s Ghost: Nobody’s Home in Tehran

Trump destroyed Iran’s visible leadership structure and still failed to produce a coherent negotiating partner. The result is a geopolitical nightmare with no clear historical precedent: a decentralized revolutionary military force operating through a ghost government while diplomats promise deals they may not have the power to enforce.

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The Toll Booth at the End of the War

Trump’s recent post suggests a positive shift for Iran, framing it as a potential “Golden Age,” but it reveals a U.S. commitment to support an IRGC-controlled toll system in the Strait of Hormuz. This intensifies regional tensions as Iran now manages a critical chokepoint while U.S. allies express concerns about security and economic implications.

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The Ceasefire Illusion

A ceasefire was declared. Markets rallied. But missiles kept flying.
This analysis breaks down Iran’s Mosaic Defense doctrine, fragmented command structure, and the deeper reality markets may be missing.

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